Could retest 7600 while Floor at 7400

I had, on Thursday, mentioned about breaking of 50dma and about its impact. We all know what happened on Friday. Bourses opened below 50dma and closed with 1% loss. Despite the floor remaining only at 7400, the Nifty may retest 7600, in an anguish, with a feeling of holding on to long time support - 50dma.  A fall of 2% is inevitable and one has to be prepared to accept this challenge. Nifty could take support at 7400 like earlier that happened since June or could go down further depending on its strength at that point of time.
To sum it up, investors are advised to remain short, for a week, with 50dma as strict SL.
Today's Levels:
S:   24970
R:   25400-470-490-610-730-790-840-950, 26190-220
S:   7468-41-03
R:   7572-85, 7612-41-51-80-93, 7716-45, 7812

Market consolidating

Indian stock market is consolidating after a strong bull run, but the continuation is not snapped. You may term it as consolidation or distribution of holdings or rotation of sectors. Whatever it is, a breather period is going on and one has to be wise to take the opportunity to rotate the holdings and get into "yet to catch up" stocks/sectors. For example cyclical sector may be the favour of many. Banking and financial stocks are all time favorites as of now. Manufacturing sectors are going to roar in the future. The next important support will be provided by 50dma which is not tested since March 2014. The importance of this support will be felt very high on today's trade and the impact will also be huge once the break is confirmed. So watch out for the break of 7600 on today's trade below which 2% drop is confirmed.
Today's Levels:
S:   25480-460, 24970
R:   25710-740-790-900, 26140-170
S:   7603, 7452-25-12
R:   7673-80, 7700-32, 7799

Achieved expected Target

The market mood and so the swing is palatable, especially at the peak of results season. The monsoon is also improving to add bliss to the market. These supports are really helpful for the market to gain momentum, had the bull rally not occurred preceding these events. At the time when the bulls are showing signs of tiredness one has to be skeptical about the current up move. Be watchful. Keep selling on the rise till 7800( if Nifty is aggressive). On the down side breaking of 7448 will pave way for a down slide.
Today's Levels:
S:   25470-420-330-220, 25070, 25000, 24970
R:   25770, 26090, 26200
S:   7592-52-20, 7457-48
R:   7711-92, 7851

Retesting of 7600 possible

Though the market is in correction mode and the expected target is sub 7000 level, intermediate upswing is expected. The indices may retest 25500/7600. Investors may take note of this and book profits quickly with strict SL 25520/7600. Below 24800/7400, the fall will be drastic.
Today's Levels:
S:   25020, 24990-800-480-330-240-200, 24060
R:   25150-330-380-410-470-520
S:   7452-01, 7317, 7288-25
R:   7513-52-72-88-97

FIIs to decide the direction

The maiden budget of NDA government is delivered peacefully with a promise to push the economy upward with a sustainable growth of above 5%, and to cut the fiscal deficit to 3.6% for FY16. Well, some are convinced and some are not. As the FM said in his opening speech, miracle can not happen to revive the economy, which is battered out of shape, within few months or few quarters. It could take couple of years. He has left more cash in the hands of salaried persons/retail investors by increasing the tax slab to 2.5lakh and by increasing 80cc benefits to 1.5lakh.
Coming to the market, the investors sold on news which they bought on budget rumours. The market has to settle down pushing the budget to the back seat. FIIs have to decide either to take the market further up after a little pause or to allow the stocks to correct to their realistic value. It is, consensually, believed that the market is over done on the NDA's absolute victory.
Technically, based on historical move, as long as 25000 on Sensex is held strong for another week or so, the market would resume its northbound journey or else a correction of  about anywhere between 5% to below 10% from recent peak could happen. One may consider 23000 on Sensex is an absolute base for the current bull rally.
Wait for a week and then take decision.
Today's Levels:
S:   25350-200, 24960-740
R:   25430-450-520-580-660-980, 26080
S:   7516, 7389
R:   7588-92, 7601-32-80, 7756, 7812

Falling trend line confirms correction

Later part of June was spent in consolidation, with serious attempts to break 7650, but in vain. The falling trend line from 7650 confirms more correction is on the cards. But, the way the Sensex EOD chart suggests, the market is not in a hurry to fall rapidly, at least till the Budget in the 2nd week of July. This will be coinciding with the results season too. Having said that, I would also like to caution the investors that the moment Nifty closes below 7430, the flood gate will open and Nifty could test 7250 in rapid succession. On the other hand the top end falling trend line is the major barrier/resistance. Crossing that Indices will once again will rally which may add another 2%, initially.
Today's Levels:
S:   24900-820-640-180-120
R:   25120-200-220-360-410-810
S:   7493-25, 7228-12-05
R:   7520-33-36-79-99, 7720

Opportunity knocks at the door

Indian stock market has already gone into correction mode, maintaining a major barrier for the uptrend as 7650, for the last two weeks. Crisis in Iraq and thereby the rise in crude prices spook the stock markets which snapped the bull rally hurriedly. Testing of falling upper trend line is destined to happen as the exchanges are in the Settlement week. SGX Nifty opened with considerable gap up to mark the opening of new week after a quick assessment on US Indices which gained about 1.2% on the closing on Friday. We expect the local bourses too open in green and may test 7600 once again. This is an opportunity for the investors to book profits, if not done earlier. Sell around 7600 with strict SL 7612. Nifty may touch 7400 and even 7300, in worst case, before budget. Most of the stocks have run up in short period and they would want to settle for a fair price. Take advantage of this and take some trading profits. Do not forget to reenter at lower level. as the long term bull rally has just begun.
Today's Levels:
S:   25060-24770-740-520-470
R:   25250-310-440-680
S:   7484-59, 7385, 7288
R:   7556-63, 7612-89

Correction begun

With the possibility of breakout of violence in Iraq which could result in Civil war and a possible break-up of the country, the crude oil prices are rattled and the Indian stock market snapped the on going bull rally. Nifty witnessed the biggest fall in a day in last 4 months. Profit booking has begun and am sure will continue in the coming days too. There is no specific charts pattern formation noticed except for a mild double top formation with the resistance placed at 7650/25600. So investors must get into quick action to book at least 50% profits with Sell stop placed at 7650, as the market is still very near the exit. Last week, I cautioned the investors to stay near the exit. The correction could extend till 7380 on Nifty, at which point  the market would take stock of the situations. On the other hand long term investors could take advantage of this correction and invest prudently for every 200 points slip on Nifty as 6500 may be considered as the base for the biggest bull run.
Today's Levels:
S:   25200-070-030, 24870-650
R:   25440-560
S:   7545-20, 7493-80-73-28
R:   7612-48

Market sans clues

Sensex achieved 25K on closing basis but stuck at the trend line resistance formed since May 13th. If Sensex stays ahead of this trend line in the coming days the market is set to have one more rally Or else correction may begin which will have first support as 23800. Follow technicals and look at good quality small and mid cap stocks. They are yet to show their performances. Maintain high level safety consciousness and try to stay near the exit as far as possible.
Today's Levels:
S:   24950-860-700-570-430-400-280
R:   25060
S:   7441-21, 7383-69, 7300, 7272-25, 7196
R:   Unknown

Reality strikes back

As the exuberance on Modi's victory starts waning the reality of economy growth shows up. The economy has expanded by just a decimal point compared to previous year but not able to meet Industry's expectation. The market is hesitating to make progress up in the absence of a strong push. The monetary policy on 3rd June will decide near term direction for the market. in fact market does not expect any great change in the policy which will have its impact on indices. The stock market is overbought and hence a correction is imminent. As I had mentioned earlier, the floor is set at 23800/7100. Below this level market could slide loosing 4 or 5%. Investors, who have not started booking profits may look at consider booking profits right now, before it becomes too late. The buying will resume only after clearing the resistance formed by a trend line since May 13th which lies at 24970 for today.
Today's Levels:
S:   24180-070, 23970-900-600-370-330-280-240, 22970
R:   24380-450-620, 24970
S:   7200, 7173-53-33, 7092-41, 6996-80-57, 6861
R:   7272-97, 7336